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thatasiangirl21 (October 4, 2008 at 10:56 pm)
haha, no problem, i had to make myself summarise it to completely understand
bgates87 (October 4, 2008 at 7:24 pm)
This video does a great job of explaining the problem. I first heard about this problem on the movie "21," but I didn't understand the solution until I watched the movie. It makes perfect sense. Those of you saying it's wrong need to watch again.
hockeymaniac7 (October 4, 2008 at 3:12 pm)
thank u very much... becuase of u i finally get it!!!! i didnt even get after i watched the vid.
christosking (October 3, 2008 at 2:57 am)
even after this great explanation its not the easiest thing to get it
max2dlax (October 3, 2008 at 2:22 am)
THAANK YOU!!
jajaka (October 3, 2008 at 2:12 am)
Okay, I FINALLY understand this! After having a countless number of people trying to explain it to me, I get it.
warbastard (October 2, 2008 at 10:32 pm)
watch it again you're definitely wrong
MrStupidHead (October 1, 2008 at 2:02 pm)
The Emperor has no clothes! This is not "counter intuitive" but rather outsmarting yourself. And believing smart people.
The probability is 0% that you will win the car after the first cut. In fact Monty won't let you. The first cut was a sham. no probabilities were involved. The first cut is merely calculated at 100% to remove one goat behind one door. NOW the game begins. One goat/one car two doors. You do the math. Michael Shermer (Sci Am skeptic) is the emperors' chief of staff on this one.
Matt007tekcor (October 1, 2008 at 3:55 am)
Even after watching this, I still reckon you've got a 50/50 chance. The host will always pick one of the goats, so regardless of whether you pick a goat or the car, you can eliminate one of the goats. Leaving one goat and one car to choose from.
I think the problem with the video explanation is it doesn't consider that your chances increase after the host reveals a goat, which means that the probability of your first choice being the car doesn't really matter.
ZogPwns (September 30, 2008 at 9:43 pm)
The goats are carved from gold by the way |
